Sports Column: Oh, the times they are a ‘changin’ : Football continues to evolve

There are few things as cyclical over time as football. No matter how far the game goes in one direction, it always seems to come back around. Just six years ago, Patrick Mahomes was going nuclear in the NFL with 55 touchdowns and over 5000 yards passing. At the same time, the Big XII Conference was in full swing averaging 30.2 points per game, nearly three points above the national average. Even perennial powerhouse Alabama was a high-flying offense averaging 45 points per contest; a team that routinely won games with scores like 9-6 and 17-10 just five years prior felt the need to score more points. Every analyst and their mother were telling us, “This is just what football looks like now so get used to it.”

Fast forward to today. Offenses in the NFL are scoring at historic lows. College teams like University of Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, teams that we grew up watching score 50+ points routinely, are now having to win and lose games scoring 20 points or less. What happened to offensive football? The same thing that happens every twenty years or so: the game has finally evolved. Again.

Look back to 1975. The NFL was dominated by the Steel Curtain Steelers, led by their generational defense and Hall of Fame fullback Franco Harris. They averaged 165 yards rushing per game but only 160 yards passing (with Hall of Famer Terry Bradshaw under center). Ten years later, it looks very similar with the ’85 Bears. On defense, the fabled Monsters of the Midway, and on offense, the great Walter Payton toting the rock. Yardage? 173 yards per game rushing and only 160 yards passing.

Now look forward to 1995. When you look around the league, things are completely different. There’s still some traditional teams, but some of the best teams got with the times: Green Bay’s Brett Favre lit up the league with over 4200 passing yards and 38 scores; the Buffalo Bills lightning fast offense was tearing up the league to the tune of over 330 yards per game; the San Francisco 49ers were still thriving off of the foundation Bill Walsh’s West Coast offense built for them years before with G.O.A.T. wide receiver Jerry Rice’s 1800 yards through the air. Not to mention the actual Super Bowl Champion Dallas Cowboys from that year, who averaged only 136 yards rushing per game versus 214 yards passing. A stark difference to the decade prior.

In the years that followed, the passing game continued to take over. In the NFL, it was Favre and Manning in the 2000s, Brady and Brees in the 2010s, and now Mahomes and Josh Allen today. In college, the Air Raid offense gave us Colt Brennan and Graham Harrell who led the way for guys like Johnny Manziel, Baker Mayfield, and Joe Burrow.

How did offenses find so much success? They were one step ahead of defenses in evolving. Linebackers were 6-foot-2 and 250 pounds trying to guard receivers that were 5-foot-10, 185 pounds. Safeties only ran 4.7 second 40s while tight ends developed into 4.5 second guys. Running backs became better receivers than ever with the best hauling in five or six passes per game on a bad day. Offensive speed and utility has reigned supreme for the vast majority of mine and many other people’s lifetimes, but who said defenses weren’t allowed to evolve?

Defenses are faster and more complicated than ever. All the best linebackers, like Fred Warner, only weigh 225 pounds and run like receivers. The best safeties, like Jessie Bates, run 4.3 second 40s and hit like sledgehammers. Heck, even defensive linemen run sub-4.5 second 40s hawking down even the best runners. It is absolutely insane what defenders today are capable of. Defenses have dominated the past few years. Seattle’s Legion of Boom in ’13, Denver’s No Fly Zone in ’15, and Kansas City’s defense last year led by Steve Spagnuolo all dominated their way to Super Bowl victories.

Offenses were strong to run, so defenses became big. Defenses got big, so offenses became faster to pass. Offenses are now fast to pass, so defenses have become faster. Defenses are now faster than ever, so now what? Like the Ouroboros circling around to eat its own tail, so too does the cyclical sport of football.

I believe offenses will become strong to run again. They have to. Players are not magically going to start running faster than they do, but plenty of them are already bigger than the defenses across from them. As boring as some fans may find it, welcome back to power running football. Teams will win by averaging 200 yards passing or less and running it 30+ times per game. They will win with field position thanks to elite special teams. They won’t dominate with explosive plays, but rather with time of possession. Football will become no longer a game of 50-yard haymakers, but rather a chess match between gameplan designers and play callers.

As a fan, many of you will not enjoy it. You will root for your favorite teams and players all the same, but deep down you will still feel a sense of boredom and longing for the regular 44-38 shootouts you grew up watching while you lose yet another game 18-13. But as a coach,  I cannot wait for this type of football to emerge. No more West Coast simplicity. No more only running four types of run plays. No more only winning if you win the turnover battle. Elite play designers will rise to the top. Coaches who utilize elite rushing offenses of decades past like 1940s Oklahoma, ‘60s Michigan, and ‘80s Nebraska will be the ones who dominate. The ones who don’t believe in winning with volume deep passing but instead by taking well-calculated shots. A game of intelligence rather than gimmicks.

Coaches today need to do what all the greatest coaches in history did and evolve with the times. If they don’t, they’ll forever be stuck in 2016 still throwing fades up the sideline and wondering why they keep losing ball games.